My picks throughout the regular season this year have not been great. They were actually horrible, but I’ve always had success picking series in the NHL playoffs and I expect this to continue this year. Picking series winners is much more of a skill than picking single games because the best team will win a much higher percentage of the time than a team will win a single game. Last year I went 12-3 in NHL playoff series picks for +9.40 units of profit. I’m expecting a similar successful outing this year.
This will be a pretty long post, but I’m including all my picks for round one in this one easy to find post.
(1) Boston Bruins vs (4) Detroit Red Wings
The Red Wings have been playing quite well lately and if they were against the Penguins I might think they could have a shot at an upset, but against the Bruins I don’t like their chances. Boston has been absolutely dominant over the past few months, with a bit of a hiccup over the last few games when they won just 2 of their last 7 to finish out the year. The Bruins did still win the Presidents Trophy though so you could argue that they didn’t have a lot to play for in these last few games.
This series doesn’t start until Friday, but unfortunately for the Red Wings it looks like Zetterberg won’t be available for the first round anyways. This is huge as he is in my opinion the most important player on this team. Nyquist will have to continue to dominate and Datsyuk will have to have the series of his life for the Red Wings to have a shot in this one. I just expect the Bruins to bang and play solid hockey throughout the lineup on their way to winning this series.
All of this said I think the first round is always dangerous for the top teams, but the Bruins will win this the majority of the time.
Play: Boston Bruins 1.37 (5Dimes)
(2) New York Rangers @ (3) Philadelphia Flyers
This is a series that I see having the potential to really go either way. It’s funny how the Flyers were almost cast aside from even having a shot at the playoffs this season after starting the year with just 9 points in their first 14 games (4-9-1). Since then of course Giroux found his game and the team went 38-21-9 to make the post season. The Flyers didn’t finish the season quite as well as the Rangers, but I do like Giroux up front having more experience as the go-to guy in these playoffs.
Picking up Martin St. Louis should help the Rangers in these playoffs as well. They really are going for it and finished off the season playing very well after getting comfortable with St. Louis in the lineup.
I really do think this could go either and that shouldn’t be a surprise as the teams are only 2 points apart. That said I’m leaning towards the Flyers partly because I’m not a believer in the Rangers, especially in Rick Nash and also because they payout better.
Play: Philadelphia Flyers 2.30 (5Dimes)
(1) Pittsburgh Penguins @ (4) Columbus Blue Jackets
The Penguins should be getting Malkin back into the lineup for the playoffs and the return of Kris Letang will also help them live up to their potential this year. The Blue Jackets played very well to make the playoffs in their first year in the Eastern Conference, but I don’t expect them to be able to knock off the top seed in the Metropolitan Division. Crosby, Malkin and Kunitz will provide the fire power up front, which will be difficult for the Blue Jackets to match.
Fleury will be getting the nod in net and I expect him to play better this year than he has the past few. The Penguins don’t really have a backup plan this time around so Fleury is much more important to them this year.
Play: Pittsburgh Penguins 1.444 (5Dimes)
(2) Montreal Canadiens @ (3) Tampa Bay Lightning
This should be a very exciting series. I like the Habs in this one and Price is a big reason why. He showed he can win under pressure at the Olympics this year, although the Team Canada defense was much better than you will see in Montreal. The Habs though have the experience from last years tough playoff outing against the Sens. This time around the Habs are much healthier and should do much better.
The Lightning gave away their most experienced playoff performer at the deadline, but if he was being a problem in the room than this is for the best. Stamkos is back and the Habs will have to key on him to make sure he doesn’t put many past Price in this series. The Lightning have a very young team with guys like Ondrej Palat, Tyler Johnson, Victor Hedman and Radko Gudas being big parts of their team this year. It’ll be interesting to see how these young guys perform in a pressure filled playoff series against the biggest hockey market left in the playoffs.
Play: Montreal Canadiens 2.05 (5Dimes)
(1) Anaheim Ducks @ (4) Dallas Stars
The Stars did great down the stretch to make the playoffs for the first time since 07-08. That Seguin trade is looking mighty good right about now for the Stars (not that it’s looking bad for the Bruins). All of that said I think the Stars might be a bit out of their depths against the Ducks in this series. Anaheim did make the playoffs atop their division last year as well, but lost in the first round to the Red Wings. I don’t expect that to happen this year. The team as a whole just seems to be so deep and their goaltending is great. Combine in Ryan Getzlaf and Corey Perry up front and you have the best regular season team in the West.
I like the Ducks to win at least a round for the first time since 08-09 this year.
Play: Anaheim Ducks 1.571 (5Dimes)
(2) Los Angeles Kings @ (3) San Jose Sharks
I’m surprised the Sharks are this big of favourites because I thought the series would be close to a pick’em series, but I still like the Sharks in this one. San Jose lost to the Kings in the second round last year in 7 games with the home team winning every game in a hard fought series. This time around San Jose has the home ice advantage and this could be the difference again. The Sharks are 29-7-5 at home this season, which is the second best record in the NHL. I just can’t see the Sharks failing in their playoff run again with such a good team consisting of guys like Thornton, Marleau, Pavelski, Couture, Boyle, Vlasic, etc. This might be the most difficult team for them to face, but I still like the Sharks in this one as small favourites.
Play: San Jose Sharks 1.714 (5Dimes)
(1) Colorado Avalanche @ Minnesota Wild
The Avalanche stunned everyone by coming out of nowhere to win the Central Division this year. The Blues 6 game losing streak to end the season definitely helped, but the Avs are playing very good hockey as well. They went 7-1-2 in their last 10 games and this is a good sign because they will likely have to win this series without leading scorer Matt Duchene who is out with a knee injury. The Avs have other top players like Landeskog, O’Reilly, MacKinnon and Stastny to pick up the offense though so this shouldn’t be a huge problem.
Semyon Varlamov has had a great season as well and will look to continue this against the Wild. Minnesota did finish the season strong as well and won’t be a walkover, but I like the exciting style of the Avalanche to continue their Cinderella run into at least the second round of the playoffs. Not having to take on either the Blues or Blackhawks in the first round was huge for this team and I expect them to use this late season surge to good use.
Play: Colorado Avalanche 1.769 (5Dimes)
(2) Chicago Blackhawks @ (3) St. Louis Blues
The Blues late season collapse has them facing the defending champs in the first round. I think it’s going to be the same old story for the Blues. A great season followed by a first round exit. Toews and Kane are back healthy for the playoffs and I still think this Blackhawks team is the one to beat in these playoffs. I’m actually surprised the Blackhawks aren’t favourites in this series. The Blues did just lose 6 straight heading into the playoffs. When that happens your confidence can go down and you can quickly forget what winning feels like. The Blackhawks will have to come strong out of the gate to keep the Blues from the win column and keep them second guessing themselves.
Play: Chicago Blackhawks 1.952 (5Dimes)
There are my 8 series predictions for the first round. I’m looking to keep my playoff wins rolling.
Tagged with: Free Picks • NHL • Round 1 • Stanley Cup