The NHL Stanley Cup Playoffs kick off tonight with three games set to take place. Last year I did well in the playoffs and although I had a very poor season picks wise I’m hoping my past playoff success can turn my year around.
Montreal Canadiens @ Tampa Bay Lightning
In this series I don’t think the home ice advantage will play a huge factor. If you read my series predictions post then you would also know that I like the Habs to win this series, so why not kick it off by betting on the Canadiens on the road. I expect Price to have a big game and for the Habs to set the tone for this series.
Play: Canadiens 2.10 (5Dimes)
Columbus Blue Jackets @ Pittsburgh Penguins
The Blue Jackets were very good down the stretch, while the Penguins played slightly more average than normal. I still think the Pens will win this series, but I think it will be closer than most people think. I like the Blue Jackets to come out of the gate hard in this game and really push a Penguins team that hasn’t been playing their best hockey lately. It’s hard for a team to just turn a switch and be at their best especially when they’re bringing players back into the lineup such as Malkin and Letang. I like the Blue Jackets to win this one and then the questions will start about Fleury in net. This is a huge game in this series.
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Play: Blue Jackets 2.90 (Sports Interaction)
Dallas Stars @ Anaheim Ducks
The Stars played very well late in the season, but so have the Ducks. They turned it on down the stretch after a slump in early March. The Ducks are the more powerful team in this series and they have been great at home all season winning 29 of their 41 home games. The Ducks will be too much to handle for the Stars in this one and they will set the tone for the series with physical play, while shutting down Seguin and Benn.
Play: Anaheim Ducks 1.61 (5Dimes)
My picks throughout the regular season this year have not been great. They were actually horrible, but I’ve always had success picking series in the NHL playoffs and I expect this to continue this year. Picking series winners is much more of a skill than picking single games because the best team will win a much higher percentage of the time than a team will win a single game. Last year I went 12-3 in NHL playoff series picks for +9.40 units of profit. I’m expecting a similar successful outing this year.
This will be a pretty long post, but I’m including all my picks for round one in this one easy to find post.
(1) Boston Bruins vs (4) Detroit Red Wings
The Red Wings have been playing quite well lately and if they were against the Penguins I might think they could have a shot at an upset, but against the Bruins I don’t like their chances. Boston has been absolutely dominant over the past few months, with a bit of a hiccup over the last few games when they won just 2 of their last 7 to finish out the year. The Bruins did still win the Presidents Trophy though so you could argue that they didn’t have a lot to play for in these last few games.
This series doesn’t start until Friday, but unfortunately for the Red Wings it looks like Zetterberg won’t be available for the first round anyways. This is huge as he is in my opinion the most important player on this team. Nyquist will have to continue to dominate and Datsyuk will have to have the series of his life for the Red Wings to have a shot in this one. I just expect the Bruins to bang and play solid hockey throughout the lineup on their way to winning this series.
All of this said I think the first round is always dangerous for the top teams, but the Bruins will win this the majority of the time.
Play: Boston Bruins 1.37 (5Dimes)
(2) New York Rangers @ (3) Philadelphia Flyers
This is a series that I see having the potential to really go either way. It’s funny how the Flyers were almost cast aside from even having a shot at the playoffs this season after starting the year with just 9 points in their first 14 games (4-9-1). Since then of course Giroux found his game and the team went 38-21-9 to make the post season. The Flyers didn’t finish the season quite as well as the Rangers, but I do like Giroux up front having more experience as the go-to guy in these playoffs.
Picking up Martin St. Louis should help the Rangers in these playoffs as well. They really are going for it and finished off the season playing very well after getting comfortable with St. Louis in the lineup.
I really do think this could go either and that shouldn’t be a surprise as the teams are only 2 points apart. That said I’m leaning towards the Flyers partly because I’m not a believer in the Rangers, especially in Rick Nash and also because they payout better.
Play: Philadelphia Flyers 2.30 (5Dimes)
(1) Pittsburgh Penguins @ (4) Columbus Blue Jackets
The Penguins should be getting Malkin back into the lineup for the playoffs and the return of Kris Letang will also help them live up to their potential this year. The Blue Jackets played very well to make the playoffs in their first year in the Eastern Conference, but I don’t expect them to be able to knock off the top seed in the Metropolitan Division. Crosby, Malkin and Kunitz will provide the fire power up front, which will be difficult for the Blue Jackets to match.
Fleury will be getting the nod in net and I expect him to play better this year than he has the past few. The Penguins don’t really have a backup plan this time around so Fleury is much more important to them this year.
Play: Pittsburgh Penguins 1.444 (5Dimes)
(2) Montreal Canadiens @ (3) Tampa Bay Lightning
This should be a very exciting series. I like the Habs in this one and Price is a big reason why. He showed he can win under pressure at the Olympics this year, although the Team Canada defense was much better than you will see in Montreal. The Habs though have the experience from last years tough playoff outing against the Sens. This time around the Habs are much healthier and should do much better.
The Lightning gave away their most experienced playoff performer at the deadline, but if he was being a problem in the room than this is for the best. Stamkos is back and the Habs will have to key on him to make sure he doesn’t put many past Price in this series. The Lightning have a very young team with guys like Ondrej Palat, Tyler Johnson, Victor Hedman and Radko Gudas being big parts of their team this year. It’ll be interesting to see how these young guys perform in a pressure filled playoff series against the biggest hockey market left in the playoffs.
Play: Montreal Canadiens 2.05 (5Dimes)
(1) Anaheim Ducks @ (4) Dallas Stars
The Stars did great down the stretch to make the playoffs for the first time since 07-08. That Seguin trade is looking mighty good right about now for the Stars (not that it’s looking bad for the Bruins). All of that said I think the Stars might be a bit out of their depths against the Ducks in this series. Anaheim did make the playoffs atop their division last year as well, but lost in the first round to the Red Wings. I don’t expect that to happen this year. The team as a whole just seems to be so deep and their goaltending is great. Combine in Ryan Getzlaf and Corey Perry up front and you have the best regular season team in the West.
I like the Ducks to win at least a round for the first time since 08-09 this year.
Play: Anaheim Ducks 1.571 (5Dimes)
(2) Los Angeles Kings @ (3) San Jose Sharks
I’m surprised the Sharks are this big of favourites because I thought the series would be close to a pick’em series, but I still like the Sharks in this one. San Jose lost to the Kings in the second round last year in 7 games with the home team winning every game in a hard fought series. This time around San Jose has the home ice advantage and this could be the difference again. The Sharks are 29-7-5 at home this season, which is the second best record in the NHL. I just can’t see the Sharks failing in their playoff run again with such a good team consisting of guys like Thornton, Marleau, Pavelski, Couture, Boyle, Vlasic, etc. This might be the most difficult team for them to face, but I still like the Sharks in this one as small favourites.
Play: San Jose Sharks 1.714 (5Dimes)
(1) Colorado Avalanche @ Minnesota Wild
The Avalanche stunned everyone by coming out of nowhere to win the Central Division this year. The Blues 6 game losing streak to end the season definitely helped, but the Avs are playing very good hockey as well. They went 7-1-2 in their last 10 games and this is a good sign because they will likely have to win this series without leading scorer Matt Duchene who is out with a knee injury. The Avs have other top players like Landeskog, O’Reilly, MacKinnon and Stastny to pick up the offense though so this shouldn’t be a huge problem.
Semyon Varlamov has had a great season as well and will look to continue this against the Wild. Minnesota did finish the season strong as well and won’t be a walkover, but I like the exciting style of the Avalanche to continue their Cinderella run into at least the second round of the playoffs. Not having to take on either the Blues or Blackhawks in the first round was huge for this team and I expect them to use this late season surge to good use.
Play: Colorado Avalanche 1.769 (5Dimes)
(2) Chicago Blackhawks @ (3) St. Louis Blues
The Blues late season collapse has them facing the defending champs in the first round. I think it’s going to be the same old story for the Blues. A great season followed by a first round exit. Toews and Kane are back healthy for the playoffs and I still think this Blackhawks team is the one to beat in these playoffs. I’m actually surprised the Blackhawks aren’t favourites in this series. The Blues did just lose 6 straight heading into the playoffs. When that happens your confidence can go down and you can quickly forget what winning feels like. The Blackhawks will have to come strong out of the gate to keep the Blues from the win column and keep them second guessing themselves.
Play: Chicago Blackhawks 1.952 (5Dimes)
There are my 8 series predictions for the first round. I’m looking to keep my playoff wins rolling.
I had another 0-3 night on Tuesday. This really just hasn’t been my season at all. That said, the picks are still coming. You can choose to fade me if you like.
Season Record-: 52-102 for -49.18 units.
Buffalo Sabres @ New York Rangers
This is probably the biggest underdog I’ve seen all season. The odds for the Sabres are implying that they have only a 24% chance of winning this game. With the parity of the NHL anything can happen. The Sabres have NHL caliber players which means they could win this game. I like the odds so I’m taking the dogs.
Play: Sabres 4.15 (5Dimes)
Washington Capitals @ Carolina Hurricanes
The Caps were eliminated from the playoffs last night. I expect a bit of a down game tonight in Carolina as the team has nothing to player for now and only 3 games remaining. I expect Ovechkin to still try to score goals because he doesn’t care about the team anyways and wants to pad his goal total for the season, but don’t expect any back checking from him in this game.
Play: Hurricanes 1.87 (5Dimes)
I haven’t been able to get many posts up over the past week, but today’s a great day to get back at it because there are plenty of games going on tonight.
Season Record-: 52-99 for -46.18 units.
Toronto Maple Leafs @ Tampa Bay Lightning
The Maple Leafs have to win this game to keep any hope of making the playoffs alive. They currently have 3 games left and are 3 points out of the last playoff spot in the East. Even getting to 90 points, which would require 3 wins to close out the season is unlikely to get them in. That said I think this team will keep some remnants of hope alive with a win tonight in Tampa Bay. The Lightning have lost 2 in a row and I just don’t think they are really as good as they’ve played this season.
Play: Maple Leafs 2.68 (5Dimes)
Washington Capitals @ St. Louis Blues
The Caps still have some hope left to make the playoffs, but that will be dashed tonight in St. Louis. I personally consider Ovechkin the worst even strength player in the NHL and his plus-minus backs this up. He is a detriment to his team and I expect at least 1 or 2 goals against the Caps tonight to be a direct result of Ovechkin not playing defense. The Caps need to get rid of their franchise player if they hope to ever make noise in the playoffs. The Blues are still in a race for the Presidents trophy with Boston and Anaheim even after losing their last two games so I expect a full team effort for the win.
Play: Blues 1.48 (5Dimes)
Ottawa Senators @ New York Islanders
The Sens are not in a position to make the playoffs. This game could really go either way, but seeing as the Islanders are home underdogs I like them in this scenario.
Play: Islanders 2.15 (5Dimes)
Last night was huge in terms of having a ton of games with playoff implications. The Stars won a huge game and the Leafs kept alive with a win to break their losing streak. The Blue Jackets were able to get a point, while the Caps were embarrassed in that Dallas game and their chances have diminished greatly.
Season Record-: 51-98 for -46.88 units.
New York Islanders @ Ottawa Senators
Both of these teams are playing pretty well of late. The Sens are getting a bit more lucky than I think they may deserve with their wins. They aren’t outplaying teams by a large margin and they’ve played several under performing teams in this span. The Isles have also done well and won 6 of their last 10 games. They also have a good 17-17-2 record on the road. I like the Isles as big dogs in this one. Also because my bets against the Sens have been losing and I would like them to keep putting up points.
Play: Islanders 2.70 (5Dimes)
Boston Bruins @ Detroit Red Wings
The Bruins are near impossible to beat right now. They’ve won 15 of their last 16 games with the only loss coming in a shootout to an almost equally hot Canadiens team at the time. The Red Wings are doing good to continue to put up points in their playoff race without their big guns and they will have to continue to do it tonight with Datsyuk and Alfredsson ruled out for the game (Zetterberg is also out). Nyquist will have a harder time scoring against the Bruins than the other teams the Wings have played of late and I expect the Bruins to be especially serious in this game because this could easily be a first round match up.
Play: Bruins 1.69 (5Dimes)
I’m a little late getting this post up, but you still have a couple hours to get your bets in before the games begin. I went 1-2 last night. The two losses were of course in extra time (one shootout), while the win was a 6-1 blowout.
Season Record-: 50-97 for -46.53 units.
Toronto Maple Leafs @ Philadelphia Flyers
The Maple Leafs are self destructing, which is what they do at this time of year. Randy Carlyle is finally being shown for what he is: a horrible coach. My friend is a Leafs fan and the rants he does on Facebook about Carlyle are absolutely hilarious. I tend to agree with him that the Leafs have been playing above their level for much of the year and now are coming back down the to mean. When you are about to set a record for most shots against in a season it’s surprising that they are even still in the playoff race at this point.
This is also almost a sports betting arbitrage opportunity because the odds at 5Dimes are +151 for the Leafs. If the odds were longer than +155 you could make guaranteed money by betting on both sides
Play: Flyers -155 (SportsInteraction)
Chicago Blackhawks @ Ottawa Senators
The Senators will lose tonight and all hope on a miraculous playoff run will be out the window. The Blackhawks aren’t playing well, but they are going to pick it up down the stretch to get ready for the playoffs. They will win this one.
Play: Blackhawks -135 (5Dimes)
It’s a big night in the NHL with some big games with playoff implications. The Red Wings play a big game against the Habs, while the Devils are basically in must win territory as they host the Coyotes. We are getting down to the final two weeks of the NHL season, with a lot of things still up in the air.
Season Record-: 49-95 for -45.03 units.
New York Islanders @ Tampa Bay Lightning
The Islanders keep doing alright and putting up wins without Tavares. They’ve been good on the road all year with a 17-17-1 record. I like them to win this game over an overrated Lightning team. The odds are absolutely ridiculous so you have to take the Isles here.
Play: Islanders 3.10 (5Dimes)
Buffalo Sabres @ Nashville Predators
The Sabres are simply horrible. They have a 1-9-0 record over the last 10. They are just really bad. The Preds should win this game. I’m surprised that the Lightning are bigger favourites than the Preds in these two games. Nashville probably still has a little bit of hope for the playoffs, but they have to win every game from here on in. This one should keep their hope alive.
Play: Predators 1.50 (5Dimes)
Vancouver Canucks @ Colorado Avalanche
Everyone kind of wrote off the Canucks when they were shopping Kesler at the deadline. It seemed like the team had given up on making the playoffs this year. Well just wait a minute. Sedin is back from injury and this team has won 3 in a row and now sits just 4 points back of the Coyotes for the last Wild Card spot in the West. I think they may be starting to believe again. I like them to use this belief and beat the Avs tonight in Colorado. It is the second night in a row for the Canucks, but a win here will put them right in the thick of the Western playoff race so I expect a big game.
Play: Canucks 2.56 (5Dimes)
The Senators actually won last night, so my method of picking the opposite team worked on one of the two games I selected. I’ll keep it going tonight with the Sens again, but I’ll make my regular picks for the rest of the games.
Season Record-: 46-94 for -48.55 units.
Ottawa Senators @ Florida Panthers
I’m picking against the Senators here because I want them to win. That said the Panthers do have a good shot in this one. Even though they won last night the Sens still showed they are susceptible to giving up leads and they are still not playing well defensively.
Play: Panthers 1.952 (5Dimes)
Phoenix Coyotes @ Pittsburgh Penguins
The Pens are having one of those lulls where they look like a very average team. The Coyotes on the other hand are fighting for a playoff berth in the West. They beat the Rangers 2-0 tonight and I expect them to be able to find their legs tonight with so much on the line. They are also playing some good hockey so I think this is a good bet as big underdogs.
Play: Coyotes 2.92 (5Dimes)
New York Islanders @ Carolina Hurricanes
For losing Tavares the Islanders aren’t playing that poorly. They are still going to be the underdogs heading into this one and rightfully so, but these teams are fairly equal in my estimation. The Isles have a fairly good 16-17-1 road record and I think this will be a battle in Carolina tonight. For this reason I like the underdogs.
Play: Islanders 2.65 (5Dimes)
Dallas Stars @ Chicago Blackhawks
The Stars did play last night, winning 2-1 at home to the Jets, but I don’t expect them to lose their legs tonight with so much on the line for this team. The Stars are playing good hockey and are on a 2 game winning streak. The Blackhawks, similar to the Pens, are in a bit of a lull right now and look like an average team. This is a great opportunity to get a bet down on the Stars as they are bigger dogs than they should be.
Play: Stars 2.85 (5Dimes)
I’m having a horrible season. It’s getting to the point where I think I can make a team lose by betting on them to win. Take my predictions with a grain of salt because as you can tell by my record this is just not my year.
Season Record-: 45-93 for -49.00 units.
Phoenix Coyotes @ New York Rangers
The Coyotes are still trying to stay ahead of the Stars in the Western Conference playoff race. They have been playing well with a 7-3 record over their past ten games. They have not been good on the road this season, but the Rangers haven’t been great at home so this is a bit of a wash. I like the Coyotes to pull of the W.
Play: Coyotes 2.45 (SportsInteraction)
Ottawa Senators @ Tampa Bay Lightning
I’m trying out my making a team win by betting against them theory here. The Sens are out of the playoff race and have been playing some of the worst hockey I’ve seen the past few games, but my betting against them will surely get them in the win column tonight. For this reason I’m betting on the Lightning as huge favourites. Lehner is back in net tonight and he hasn’t been great, but he did play better against Dallas on Sunday. That said the Lightning are playing quite well and should win this one.
Play: Lightning 1.53 (5Dimes)
Big night here with a lot of playoff implications. There are plenty of matinees today with 5 games being played with start times between 1pm and 4pm EST so it looks like a full hockey kind of day for those of you who aren’t into the big March Madness games going on today.
Tampa Bay Lightning @ Pittsburgh Penguins
The Lightning have been on first since getting rid of Martin St. Louis surprisingly. They’ve won 5 games in a row and have really cemented themselves as a playoff team in the East. The Pens are coming off a lost to the Red Wings in overtime and haven’t looked their best lately. The Lightning could jump on this and take another two points.
Play: Lightning 2.50 (5Dimes)
New York Rangers @ New Jersey Devils
Jagr said after the Devils last win that every game for them is like a game 7 if they hope to make the playoffs. This game against their rival Rangers is huge and New York is still fighting for a spot in the playoffs as well. This will be a fun one to watch and I think Jagr will pull the game out for the Devils and keep the hope alive in Jersey.
Play: Devils 2.00 (BetOnline)
Calgary Flames @ Edmonton Oilers
The Western Conference bottom feeders from Alberta play tonight in what is always at least an entertaining match up. These two teams don’t like each other and even though this game is meaningless I expect big efforts from both sides. The Flames played last night in a shootout against the Preds and I think this will tip the favour in the Oilers direction for tonights game.
Play: Oilers 1.714 (5Dimes)
