The play-in games took place today and pretty much went as expected except for the Latvian team upsetting the Swiss and setting up a far easier game for Team Canada in the quarters tomorrow.
Olympics record: 6-6 for -0.59 units.
Slovenia vs Sweden
Sweden hasn’t really run up the score on teams yet in these Olympics. They defeated both the Czech Republic by two goals each and beat the Swiss 1-0. That said they are the only team with 9 points after the round robin stages, but losing Zetterberg I think will hurt them before this tournament is over. That said against Slovenia won’t be the time. Slovenia beat Austria in the play-in game and they can now be satisfied with their tournament. They defeated both Slovakia and Austria and made the semi-finals. I expect a bit of a lull in their game against the Swedes and it being the quarterfinals Sweden won’t let up. I expect more of a blow out in this one.
Play: Sweden (-3.5) 2.05 (5Dimes)
Russia vs Finland
Finland will be the well rested team because they got the bye to the semi-finals. Finland battled it out to an overtime loss to Canada the other day and I expect them to put up another battle against the Russians. I think this will be a low scoring affair that could really go either way. Finland is far too big of underdogs in this one as Russia has really not had a great tournament and I don’t expect them to turn it around now.
Play: Finland 2.70 (5Dimes)
Canada vs Latvia
The Latvians pulled off a big upset with their 3-1 win over Switzerland in the play-in games. This team is well coached, but I still expect a mental drop in their game play tomorrow. They did what they came to Sochi to do and now I expect them to let their foot of the gas a little bit. They don’t play a particularly defensive game and I expect Canada to take advantage and run up the score in this one.
Play: Canada (-3.5) 1.64 (BetOnline)
Czech Republic vs USA
The Czechs haven’t had a great tournament, but they do have a fighting chance in this one against the Americans. I don’t like to put too much weight in a team running the score up against weaker opposition so I’m not as impressed with Team USA as many in the media are at this point. The Czech Republic has enough strong players to win this game. They also won’t be satisfied with a quarterfinal berth like Latvia or Slovenia, so this will not be a gimmie game for the Americans. At the current odds the Czechs have to win the game 29% of the time for the moneyline bet to be a smart wager. I give them a win 1/3 of the time in this game.
Play: Czech Republic 3.50 (5Dimes)
Today went as planned in terms of which teams won their games. That said I only went 2-2 on my picks with the Swiss able to keep it close against the Swedes, and the Latvians having another good game against the Czech Republic. Canada and Finland did their part though and had a couple blowout games.
Olympics record: 4-4 for -0.29 units.
Slovakia vs Slovenia
The Slovaks are coming off a 7-1 drumming by Team USA. The score doesn’t tell the whole story though because Team USA only outshot Slovakia by 10 and their goals really came as the flood gates opened in period 2. Slovenia did better than expected losing 5-2 to Russia. I think these outcomes may have swayed the odds a bit and this maybe should be a 3.5 goal spread. I like Slovakia to bounce back and put up some goals against a far weaker Slovenia team.
Play: Slovakia (-2.5) 2.00 (5Dimes)
USA vs Russia
The USA showed they have firepower in this Olympics with a 7-1 win over Slovakia. I’m surprised that Russia is such a big favourite in this game. They had a hard time against Slovenia and Datsyuk is playing at half speed. I expect Team USA to push hard on a fairly weak Russian defense and make them work hard all night. This will also prevent the talented forwards for Russia from getting the puck as often as they’d like. I expect a fairly clinical win from Team USA in this one.
Play: USA 2.25 (Bet365)
Sweden vs Latvia
Sweden lost Zetterberg, which is a huge hit for their gold medal chances. That said they still have a lot of offense on this team and they will be looking to gel further after only registering one goal against the Swiss today. Look for the Swedes to run up the score in this one if they can.
Play: Sweden (-3.5) 2.00 (Bet365)
Switzerland vs Czech Republic
The Swiss won 1-0 over Latvia and lost 1-0 against Sweden. In fact they looked like the better team for much of the Sweden game. If they can use their speed against the Czech Republic they should have a good chance in this one. It will come down to if they can start finding the back of the net on some of their chances and if Hiller can continue to stand on his head, which has become what we expect from the Swiss netminder in these games. I like the Swiss to pull off the minor upset in this one and have a slightly easier opponent for the play-in games.
Play: Switzerland (+1.5) 1.45 (Bet365)
The first day of the men’s hockey tournament for Groups B and C went pretty much as planned with Canada, Russia, Finland and Team USA all winning their games against lesser opponents. As for my spread picks from yesterday I went 2-2.
Olympics record: 2-2 for +0.17 units.
Latvia vs Czech Republic
The Czech Republic came on hard in the second half of their game against a very strong Swedish team. Yes, the Latvians surprised us a bit by being able to hang with Switzerland, but the Czechs have much more fire power up front and they will be eager to show they are a threat in this tournament by playing hard for a full game rather than just the second half like they did against the Swedes.
Play: Czech Republic (-2.5) 2.00 (5Dimes)
Switzerland vs Sweden
Sweden let their foot off the pedal against the Czech Republic, but I still feel they are going to win the gold medal. The Swedes beat Switzerland in the finals of the 2013 World Championships by a score of 5-1. I expect a similar type of game. The Swedes can score on command and should be able to win by at least 2 against the Swiss. Hiller is a wild card here, but the Swedes should get enough chances to put in a few goals on him.
Play: Sweden (-1.5) 1.645 (5Dimes)
Canada vs Austria
The Canadians weren’t able to generate a ton of offense against the Norwegians today, but I expect that to change tomorrow. It took Team Canada a while to score their first goal in the game, but in the second half they seemed to start working together better and adjusting to the large ice. Team Austria should be an easier challenge than Norway so I expect Canada to cover the spread in this one. Finland beat Austria 8-4 today, so it shows they are suspect on defense. Team Canada should be able to score a similar number while giving up only 1 or 2.
Play: Canada (-4.5) 1.667 (5Dimes)
Norway vs Finland
Finland did as I expected today and came out with something to prove against the Austrians with an 8-4 win. I’m surprised they allowed so many goals, but they can adjust against the Norwegians. Norway showed they are a decent team with a valiant effort against the Canadians today, but I still think they are on a far lower level than the Finns. Finland should be able to cover the 2.5 goal spread as they showed they have the fire power to put up goals in this tournament.
Play: Finland (-2.5) 1.87 (5Dimes)
We just saw the first two Men’s hockey games take place at noon today (Eastern Time). I personally watched the Sweden vs Czech Republic game and saw one of my favourites, Erik Karlsson, ripping it up on the big ice. That said, the Czechs really seemed to take over the game in the second half. I think this Czech team might actually have a chance to do something if they smarten up and put Pavelec between the pipes next game. Sweden has been my pick to win the tournament and I’m still sticking with that even though they seemed to let up slightly in the second half.
In the other game, Switzerland scored with 8 seconds left to avoid dropping a point to Latvia. The Swiss are coming off a silver medal at the World Championships and are expected to battle with some of the big boys in this tournament.
Tomorrow there are four games as we really get the Men’s Ice Hockey underway!
Finland vs Austria
This game starts at 3:00am my time so I won’t be watching it. That said I like the Finns to take it to the Austrians to show the world they should still be considered an elite team. After losing Mikko Koivu I think their chances really plummeted, but they still have the depth and goaltending to hang with the top teams, if not the scoring to really set themselves apart.
The spread in this game is 3.5 and I do like the Finns to cover the spread because they will want to start off strong. Austria has 3 NHLers on the team (Vanek, Grabner and Raffl) but the majority of their team is from the Austrian league, which isn’t one of the stronger leagues in Europe.
Play: Finland (-3.5) 1.95 (BetOnline)
Slovenia vs Russia
Russia has the most pressure of any team in these Olympics. Likely even more than Canada. They start off the tournament against a weak opponent in Slovenia and I expect them to rack up the goals. Russia has a team that is primarily built for offense. I don’t expect them to go too far in these Olympics because of their suspect defensive lineup, but they should be able to rack up the goals against weaker teams. They will be looking to make a statement in this game and to make the Russian fans happy. I expect them to cruise to an easy victory while putting the puck in the net several times.
Play: Russia (-4.5) 1.77 (5Dimes)
United States vs Slovakia
Team Slovakia will miss Marian Gaborik, but they still have a very strong team even without their star. Zdeno Chara will likely log around 30 minutes a game on defense, while Marian Hossa will be looked to for a good chunk of the offense. There are 11 NHL players on this team and the majority of the other players are playing in the KHL which is the second best league in hockey. Slovakia’s goaltending duo of Halak and Budaj will not be overwhelmed playing NHL players and I expect Slovakia to be able to stick with the USA in terms of skill.
Where Slovakia has the edge is that half of their players were already playing in Russia, and all of their players have more experience on the international ice than the American team. I think we could see an upset in this game with the Slovaks pulling out a tight victory of the USA.
Play: Slovakia 3.55 (5Dimes)
Norway vs Canada
The same reason I see Norway keeping Canada within a 4 goal spread are the reasons I mentioned about the Americans. Team Canada will need longer to adjust to both the time differential and the ice than the Norway players. Canada did defeat Norway 8-1 in their opening game of the 2010 Olympics, but I don’t expect that big of a spread tomorrow.
Play: Norway (+4.5) 2.22 (SportsInteraction)
There are 5 games tonight, with many teams finishing up their pre-Olympics schedule. Of the 5 games I’m taking 2 favourites tonight.
Season record: 38-74 for -35.15 units.
Florida Panthers @ Carolina Hurricanes
The Panthers played last night at home and lost a 3-1 game to the Detroit Red Wings. The Panthers are not in the playoff picture and have now lost 4 of their last 5 games. The Panthers will also be playing their second of a back to back and their 3rd game in 4 nights. The Hurricanes on the other hand have been playing some pretty good hockey. They did lose to the Jets a couple nights ago, but the Jets were surging and it was a tight game that could have gone either way. Before that the Hurricanes had won 5 of the previous 6. I like the ‘Canes to win this game at home and to put themselves in a decent spot to return from the Olympics and battle it out for a playoff spot.
Play: Hurricanes 1.552 (5Dimes)
New York Rangers @ Pittsburgh Penguins
The Rangers lost at home last night to the Edmonton Oilers by a score of 2-1. The Penguins are not a team you want to play as the second of a back to back. New York has been playing good and they actually won their previous 4 games, but the Penguins can put the puck in the back of the net and will do so at home tomorrow. The Pens won 5-1 in Buffalo a couple nights ago and should be fresh for this game. Take the Penguins to win against their division rivals here.
Play: Penguins 1.621 (5Dimes)
I went 2 for 5 on Tuesday, but thanks to the Senators come back win as massive dogs and the Jets win as small dogs I actually finished up 0.28 units.
Season Record: 37-71 for -33.15 units.
Winnipeg Jets @ Washington Capitals
The Jets are rolling. They went into Carolina against a Hurricanes team that is playing very well and came out with a win. Now they head to Washington to keep their streak alive and stay in the playoff hunt. The Jets have now won 9 of 11 games under Paul Maurice and what looked like a dire situation in Winnipeg has changed to a hopeful one with the Jets only two points out of the playoffs. The Caps on the other hand have not been great lately. They’ve lost 10 of their last 13 games and I personally think they are just not that great of a team. I expect them to miss the playoffs this year and this loss tonight won’t help in that respect.
Play: Jets 2.17 (5Dimes)
Vancouver Canucks @ Montreal Canadiens
The Canucks are dropping like stones in the Western Conference. They’ve lost 5 in a row without even registering a point. The Canucks are only 1 point ahead of the Coyotes for the last wild card spot in the West, but they’ve played two more games. The Canucks have lost their first 3 games of this road trip and I wouldn’t be surprised if there were a couple more losses before they headed home. The Habs aren’t exactly on top of their game, but they are playing well enough to beat this struggling Canucks squad.
Play: Canadiens 1.725 (5Dimes)
Buffalo Sabres @ Ottawa Senators
The Sens pulled off a crazy win in St. Louis a couple nights ago coming back from 3-1 down before winning the game in a shootout. It was probably the worst referee’d game I’ve seen in a long time, but the Senators overcame this adversity and beat both the Blues, who are one of the top teams in the league, and the refs. This has to be a good turning point in the Senators season and they will not let up against the Sabres. Buffalo played last night losing 5-1 to Pittsburgh. I expect a similar score tonight as the Sens know how to put the puck in the back of the net and the Sabres simply do not.
Play: Senators (-1.5) 2.44 (5Dimes)
Columbus Blue Jackets @ Los Angeles Kings
The Kings, like the Canucks are falling hard in the Western Conference. LA has only won 1 of their last 10 games and are 0-3 on this current home stand. The Blue Jackets come into town on a three game winning streak and still playing some of their best hockey of the season. I like the Blue Jackets to continue to roll and the Kings to continue to drop further down the playoff picture in the West.
Play: Blue Jackets 2.41 (5Dimes)
Season Record: 35-68 for -33.43 units.
Winnipeg Jets @ Carolina Hurricanes
The Jets are playing some of the best hockey of the season. They are 8-2-0 in the last ten and seem to have really turned things around under coach Maurice. The Hurricanes are also playing well lately, but I think the Jets momentum will get them through this game and the fact they are dogs makes them a more attractive bet.
Play: Jets 2.28 (5Dimes)
Colorado Avalanche @ New York Rangers
The Avs are on a four game winning streak and are 8-2-0 in the last ten. The Rangers are another team playing well having won three straight, but the West is a more difficult conference and I think the Avs young team will be fine tonight even though they did play in Jersey last night. I like the Avs as surprisingly big dogs in this one.
Play: Avalanche 2.53 (5Dimes)
Toronto Maple Leafs @ Florida Panthers
The Maple Leafs somehow keep winning games. They aren’t playing particularly well, but they are finding the back of the net and finding ways to win. They are 8-1-1 in their last ten and have won 3 in a row. The Panthers are on a three game skid and for some reason this is a pick’em game. The reason must be that the Leafs are only 10-11-5 on the road this season, but I think their momentum will get them the win tonight in Florida.
Play: Maple Leafs 1.952 (5Dimes)
Calgary Flames @ Montreal Canadiens
I never would have thought the Calgary Flames would win 5 games in a row this year, but it’s happened. Why not make it six in Montreal. The Flames have played some solid hard working hockey and Montreal hasn’t been at their best of late. I’m on the Flames tonight as big dogs.
Play: Flames 2.55 (SportsInteraction)
Ottawa Senators @ St. Louis Blues
The Senators beat the Blues in the other meeting between these two this year. I was actually at that game and the Blues are a high flying team that gets on the forecheck hard. That being said the Sens need to find a win in this one and they were able to shelter the Blues offensive chances in that game and I expect them to do more of the same tonight. The Sens played decently well in Pittsburgh last night and they need to build on that against another strong team in St. Louis. They are very big dogs and I give them a fair chance at winning tonight.
Play: Senators 3.00 (SportsInteraction)
Another bad month, but I have a feeling February will be where I start to turn things around.
Season record: 36-67 for -34.03 units.
There are a lot of games on tap today, but I don’t like the odds on many of them. Just sticking with two plays today.
Philadelphia Flyers @ Los Angeles Kings
The Flyers and Kings are both struggling, but someone has to win this one. The Kings have lost 7 of their last 8 and are slowly slipping into worrisome waters in the Western Conference playoff standings. Today they host another Metropolitan team after losing to the Pens 4-1 on Thursday. The Flyers are also struggling having lost 5 of their last 6 games. They have been playing some either strong or streaking opponents though so I expect them to be ready to go tonight. They are also in a crucial spot in the standings where they need to find some W’s. Just because they are such big dogs and I think this game could go either way I’m on the Flyers.
Play: Flyers 2.60 (SportsInteraction)
Pittsburgh Penguins @ Phoenix Coyotes
The Penguins are simply a better team than the Coyotes and they win this one the majority of the time. At 1.80 odds the implied probability of them winning this game is 55.56%. I see them winning 2 out of 3 times, which makes odds of 1.80 a smart bet on the Pens tonight. The Coyotes have not been playing their best hockey of late and should be easy pickings for the Penguins.
Play: Penguins 1.80 (5Dimes)
Season record: 36-64 for -31.03 units.
St. Louis Blues @ Carolina Hurricanes
The Blues are back on track having won their last 3 games after being embarrassed in New Jersey losing 7-1 on January 21st. Tonight they play in Carolina where I expect them to continue to roll with their healthy lineup. The Hurricanes have also played well of late, having won 4 games in a row before that streak coming to an end in the second of back to back games in Montreal on Tuesday. They should be fresh and ready to go tonight, but I still think having Cam Ward out with an injury makes them susceptible to giving up large amounts of goals. I expect the Blues to come into Carolina hard tonight and find the back of the net often.
Play: Blues (-1.5) 3.25 (5Dimes)
New York Islanders @ New York Rangers
The Islanders and Rangers play again after their tight outdoor game battle on Wednesday. The Islanders are just as good a team as the Rangers and I still expect them to find a way to beat their cross town rivals tonight.
Play: Islanders 2.60 (5Dimes)
Washington Capitals @ Detroit Red Wings
The Red Wings are depleted with injuries. Zetterberg may come back, which would help tremendously, but not having Datsyuk, Franzen or Weiss on top of that really hurts this team. The Caps were on a 7 game slide in January, but they won a couple games before losing to Columbus last night. There is still every reason for the Capitals to be up for this game as their 6 consecutive post season appearance streak could be snapped this year.
Play: Capitals 2.30 (SportsInteraction)
Last night I went 2 for 3, which is a pretty good night for me considering some of my results of late. The Blues did as I thought they would and covered the spread against the Devils to get their revenge on home ice. They didn’t give up a goal either, which was in stark contrast to the 7 they gave up in Jersey. Tonight there are only three games on the schedule.
Season record: 36-62 for -29.03 units.
New York Rangers @ New York Islanders
The second game at Yankee Stadium pits the Rangers against the Islanders. The Rangers were able to dummy the Devils 7-3 in this same stadium on the weekend and many people will think this gives them the edge heading into tonight’s game. That said, they played in the afternoon and this game is at night, which will give the game an entirely different feel. As with most outdoor games I think tonight will basically be a crap shoot, which is why I like the Islanders as the dogs in this one.
Play: Islanders +130 (5Dimes)
Chicago Blackhawks @ Vancouver Canucks
The Blackhawks just can’t seem to get it together. They’ve now lost 4 games in a row, and their last two losses were against the Flames and Jets, two of the bottom feeders in the Western Conference. Tonight is their second of a back-to-back and it’s against a solid Canucks team that is currently in a battle for a playoff spot. The Canucks are coming off an equally embarrassing loss against the Oilers a couple nights ago, but they haven’t been playing poorly and they have had an extra nights rest. I like the Canucks.
Play: Canucks +106 (5Dimes)
