What’s up guys! The NHL is back! I am pretty pumped for the games tonight and then tomorrow we’re really in for a treat with a full slate of games.
This year I’ve decided to offer all of my picks for free through the NHL Betting Tips Facebook page and our email list. So make sure you sign up to both of those so you don’t miss out on any of our winning NHL bets. Last year, since I started offering the picks to paying members I personally had a record of +15.93 units in the regular season (since January 27th) and a record of +13.35 units in the playoffs. You can see the spreadsheet of my picks from last year right here.
I’m going to be updating the site to coincide with my decision to move back to providing the best free NHL picks you’ll find on the web.
Another update I wanted to include is that I will be focusing a lot more on daily fantasy hockey this year. I’ve gotten into daily fantasy big time over the past year and I’ve been finding just as much success playing daily fantasy as I did purely betting on sports. So be on the lookout for DraftKings.com lineups throughout the season. I’m not sure if I’ll add these here or on my main SportsBettingCanadian.ca site, but I’ll mention the articles on Facebook for sure, so just make sure you’re on the Facebook page.
Alright, on to the first pick of the season…….
Vancouver Canucks @ Calgary Flames
Gaudrea will look to avoid the sophomore slump.
These two teams were the 3rd and 4th highest scoring teams in the Western Conference last season and they get to jump right back into the heated rivalry after the Flames dismissed the Canucks from the first round of the playoffs last year. Karri Ramo is getting the nod in goal for the Flames out of the gate and I’m not convinced that he is of starter quality in this league. The Flames played well defensively in the preseason, but the regular season is another can of worms.
I like both of these teams to put up some goals in this one. Early in the season teams defensive schemes are not always running completely smoothly, and this can result in some silly mistakes that end up with the puck in the back of the net.
Look for a shootout with the Gaudreau-Monahan-Hudler line in a scoring race with Sutter-Sedin-Sedin.
Play: Over 5.5 (2.29) @ 5Dimes.eu
It’s now been two months since the Chicago Blackhawks won the 2015 Stanley Cup. The sportsbooks literally had the new odds out a couple days after the Blackhawks Cup clinching win and I wrote a post on June 16th outlining the very early odds for the next Cup Champion.
It’s now been 2 months since these odds have been out and I’m interested to see if the odds have moved at all over the summer based on the various trades, draft and free agent signings done by each team.
I used Bet365.com for the odds in my last post, so I will stay consistent in order to see if there has been any changes in these two months.
2016 Stanley Cup Winner Odds in August
Below are the current odds from Bet365.com as of August 18th, 2015. In brackets will be the odds from June 16th, if there have been any changes. The teams who have had their odds shorten will be in bold, and the teams that have had their odds lengthen will be in italics.
- Chicago Blackhawks 8/1
- Anaheim Ducks 8/1 (9/1)
- New York Rangers 10/1 (8/1)
- Montreal Canadiens 10/1
- Minnesota Wild 10/1
- Tampa Bay Lightning 10/1
- St. Louis Blues 10/1 (11/1)
- Pittsburgh Penguins 10/1 (14/1)
- LA Kings 16/1 (18/1)
- Calgary Flames 17/1 (20/1)
- Washington Capitals 17/1 (18/1)
- New York Islanders 18/1
- Nashville Predators 20/1 (12/1)
- Boston Bruins 22/1 (18/1)
- Columbus Blue Jackets 22/1 (28/1)
- Winnipeg Jets 25/1
- Detroit Red Wings 28/1
- San Jose Sharks 30/1 (33/1)
- Dallas Stars 30/1 (40/1)
- Vancouver Canucks 35/1 (18/1)
- Colorado Avalanche 35/1 (40/1)
- Ottawa Senators 35/1 (33/1)
- Philadelphia Flyers 40/1
- Florida Panthers 50/1
- Edmonton Oilers 50/1 (66/1)
- Toronto Maple Leafs 75/1
- Buffalo Sabres 75/1 (125/1)
- New Jersey Devils 100/1 (90/1)
- Carolina Hurricanes 150/1 (100/1)
- Arizona Coyotes 150/1
The biggest movers in terms of becoming bigger favourites were the Pittsburgh Penguins who moved from 14/1 to 10/1 and the Columbus Blue Jackets who moved from 28/1 to 22/1.
The Penguins added Phil Kessel in a blockbuster trade with the Leafs and this should definitely help their offense this season.
The Blue Jackets added Brandon Saad, but I don’t expect that to be as big of an addition as many suspect. That said, this Blue Jackets team is better than their finish last season, as their late season form showed. If Bobrovsky stays healthy all season, this team should definitely be a playoff team.
The main movers the other way were the Nashville Predators who moved from 12/1 to 20/1. I think people are just realizing that this team overachieved to finish with 104 points last season and they need to add some more pieces, particularly up front, if they want to be legitimate contenders this year.
My Pick
I still like the Kings, even though they moved from 18/1 to 16/1. Finding a technicality to get rid of the Mike Richards contract will definitely help them with Cap Room this year. I expect a bounce back year from the Kings and for them to really contend for that Cup and the title of dual-dynasty over the past 5 seasons with the Chicago Blackhawks. They still have the roster to go deep. If they get strong goaltending from Quick and find a way to commit to playing hard every game, this team will be very hard to beat.
The Lightning at 10/1 still interest me as well. I think they are now the team to beat in the Eastern Conference, even with the Phil Kessel addition to the Penguins. They have a great young team that I think will only get better this year. Their young guys play hard at both ends of the ice and you know they will be hungry to get back to the Cup Final and get a different result.
It’ll probably be another month before I get another post up here, because not much is happening in the world of NHL betting right now. But check back once we’re closer to the season for more frequent articles.
The 2015 NHL Draft is just a few days away. Tonight we are treated to the NHL Award ceremony in Las Vegas, but the true hockey fans are really looking forward to Friday when they get to see which players in this highly touted draft class end up where. I did write a quick post about the NHL Awards at SportsBettingCanadian.ca, so you can check that out if you’re interested.
This years NHL Draft is supposed to rival that of the 2003 NHL Draft that has gone down in history as one of the best draft classes of all-time. The 2003 NHL Draft has already seen 16 of 30 first round picks become NHL All-Stars and another 6 in the second round. But what could make this years Draft even better is that it has the “generational” talents of Connor McDavid and Jack Eichel going #1 & #2. They say McDavid is the best prospect since Sidney Crosby (I think he’s better) and Eichel would have been first overall in each of the past 9 drafts if McDavid wasn’t also in his draft year. That’s a lot of praise and it’s going to make this Friday’s draft much watch TV.
Online sportsbook, Bodog.eu (Bovada for Americans), has a ton of different prop bets available for the NHL Draft. I’m going to touch on a few here, but you should visit Bodog.eu to see the full list of props you can wager on.
How Many Players from OHL will be drafted in the 1st Round?
- Over (6.5) 1.83
- Under (6.5) 1.83
This is an interesting bet because Central Scoutings final rankings have 6 OHL players in the top 14 of their rankings, but then the next player isn’t until #32 with Vince Dunn. I like the over here because you know that 6 will be drafted in the first round for sure and then you can hope that a player like Dunn, Vande Sompel, or Senyshyn is drafted slightly above their projection.
Bodog also has totals for the WHL (6), QMJHL (6), USA National Team/NCAA or USHL (6) and outside of North America (5), so if you know one of the leagues pretty well you could make a smart wager.
How Many Trades will there be the first day of the draft?
- Over (5.5) 1.71
- Under (5.5) 2.00
There’s been a lot of talk about teams looking to make deals before or at the draft this season. If there aren’t many deals made at the Awards tonight or leading into the draft I would definitely take the over here. Teams are always tinkering and there will certainly be some small deals, and likely some blockbusters as well.
How Many NHL team representatives will thank the host city when they’re at the podium?
- Over (14.5) 1.83
- Under (14.5) 1.83
I actually like the under here. I’m not sure how many the average is from the past, but later in the first round teams are encouraged to hurry up and this may cut into their “thanking” time.
You can also wager on how many congratulate the Chicago Blackhawks on their Stanley Cup win. The over/under for that is 5.5.
Draft Position of Ivan Provorov
- Over (7.5) 1.91
- Under (7.5) 1.77
I’ve heard a lot of good things about Provorov and it sounds like he has the upside to be a very good #1 defenseman in this league. Those players are hard to come by and I expect a team top snag him, whether it’s the Hurricanes at #5, the Devils at #6 or the Flyers at #7.
Bodog.eu also has over/under draft positions for the majority of players in the draft.
It hasn’t even been a full day since Jonathan Toews and company hoisted the Stanley Cup above their heads in Chicago, but the online sportsbooks have already released the 2016 Stanley Cup winner odds. I guess there is no better time to start thinking about the next Cup winner than minutes after the last Cup winner has been decided.
That said, we do need to pay the 2015 Stanley Cup Champion Blackhawks some respect. They are a borderline dynasty after all, with 3 Stanley Cups in 6 years in the parity filled cap era of the NHL. I think a picture will do:
They look sharp. Who is going to be cramming into a picture at this time next year? Well why not start to think about it…..
2016 Stanley Cup Winner Odds
I’m going to use the odds from Bet365.com, but every self-respecting online bookie already has these futures odds up, so I suggest comparing between all of our recommended sportsbooks for NHL betting.
- Chicago Blackhawks 8/1
- New York Rangers 8/1
- Anaheim Ducks 9/1
- Tampa Bay Lightning 10/1
- Minnesota Wild 10/1
- Montreal Canadiens 10/1
- St. Louis Blues 11/1
- Nashville Predators 12/1
- Pittsburgh Penguins 14/1
- LA Kings 18/1
- Boston Bruins 18/1
- Washington Capitals 18/1
- Vancouver Canucks 18/1
- New York Islanders 18/1
- Calgary Flames 20/1
- Winnipeg Jets 25/1
- Detroit Red Wings 28/1
- Columbus Blue Jackets 28/1
- Ottawa Senators 33/1
- San Jose Sharks 33/1
- Dallas Stars 40/1
- Colorado Avalanche 40/1
- Philadelphia Flyers 40/1
- Florida Panthers 50/1
- Edmonton Oilers 66/1
- Toronto Maple Leafs 75/1
- New Jersey Devils 90/1
- Carolina Hurricanes 100/1
- Buffalo Sabres 125/1
- Arizona Coyotes 150/1
There’s the list of 30 teams. First of all, I know for a fact you can get a better return on most of these teams at different sportsbooks, so just make sure you compare odds before placing any bets.
My Tips
The first thing that jumps out at me when looking at those odds is the LA Kings at 18/1. This Kings team is still very much a contender with one of the best cores in the game. They won 2 of the last 4 Stanley Cups and yet they’re considered the 9th favourite along with 4 other teams to win the Cup next season. If the Kings made the playoffs this year, even in 8th in the West, I can almost guarantee they would have been a top 5 team based on the odds heading into the post season. The Kings at 18/1 are definitely my favourite play.
I also like the Lightning at 10/1 (you can get better odds elsewhere). This team made the Cup Finals this year and as an extremely young team they will be just as hungry next year. Not to mention the entire team is basically staying together. The Lightning will be the team to beat in the East next year and once you make the Finals anything can happen.
The Blues at 11/1 are my other favourite pick. This is a very young team that will lean even more on Tarasenko and Schwartz next season. They have one of the best top D cores in the game and we saw how important that is with the Blackhawks this year. If they can just get over that hump I think this team could be extremely dangerous.
I like the Bolts and Blues, but if you’re going to make one bet the best value has to be the Kings. They will be ready to bounce back after being embarrassed this season.
Check back before the season begins for up to date odds and to see how they lines have changed because of off-season moves and more!
Below is a guest post written by Eric, who is an regular reader of the site. He enjoys looking at the statistical side of NHL betting and he turned his focus to the over/under bets on total goals for games in the Stanley Cup Finals. Feel free to let Eric know how you feel about the article in the comment section below.
I’m writing this article with a simple goal in mind: to answer the question “Is it safe to bet on the total score of Game 1 (and the rest of the series) of the 2015 Stanley Cup?” In other words, “Do I think it is likely enough to put money on over or under 5 goals being scored Wednesday night?”
My (entirely stat based) opinion: No.
Let’s break down why.
First off it makes sense to take a quick look at each team’s season ranking in the relevant simple stats: goals per game and goals against. During the regular season, Chicago scored 2.7 goals per game (17th in the league), and allowed 2.3 goals per game (2nd in the league). Comparatively, the Lightning scored 3.2 gpg (1st!) and allowed 2.5 (12th). So we’ve got the #1 offence against the #2 defense squaring off in Tampa Bay. If we quickly average each team’s regular season stats with each other we can predict 2.75 goals for the Lightning and 2.6 for the Blackhawks. That’s 5.35 goals total, just .35 above the 5 we have to break away from to come out ahead.
However, the playoffs are a completely different setting in any sport, and we’ve got plenty more games to look at. So far the Blackhawks have averaged final scores of 3.35 to 2.88, and the Lightning have averaged 2.95 to 2.25. At the bottom of the Blackhawks spreadsheet I average in these numbers to predict a 5.5 goal game, but at this point we’re doing so much averaging that it’s hard to look at that number seriously. Obviously if we average every game the two have played together we’re gonna end up with the same prediction we have to bet against: 5 goals.
So instead of averaging more numbers together let’s look at some different stats. On each sheet I separated the team’s goal totals for home and away games thus far in the playoffs in the “Home Sum” and “Away Sum” columns. Tampa Bay will be hosting the Blackhawks so maybe we can gain some insight from these columns. In the three series we’ve seen from each team so far the Blackhawks have average a losing game of 3 to 3.33. This stat is skewed a bit by two blowouts in Nashville but at any rate they seem to play more exciting games on the road. Meanwhile, the Lightning have averaged a somewhat less high scoring game of 3.11 to 2.44 in Tampa Bay. This score is still, however, higher than their total playoff average. So I believe it’s safe to say we can expect more action packed games in the Sunshine State. Averaging these numbers gives us a prediction of 3.22 to 2.72 in favor of the Eastern Conference Champions. More importantly, that’s a total of 5.94 goals.
Now that we have all the stats and averages we can handle, how do we interpret and value them? Are these reliable stats? I believe that over the series as a whole they will turn out to be reliable, but as always, every game is different and anything can happen. A big part of setting the average goals for the series will be whether or not we see games go into overtime. Both teams are averaging around 20% more goals in overtime games and this can make or break our bet. It’s also hard to know how much confidence to put in our stats. As the article progressed I started to talk about some stats that aren’t based on a whole lot of games. That last paragraph detailing the teams respective stats at home and on the road are based on a mere 9 games each. Furthermore, all the stats used from playoffs games had standard deviations of around 2 goals each, and 2 goals is a lot when we’re talking about a 5 goal game. So for me anyway, the numbers alone aren’t enough to consider a 6+ goal game (the more probable of the two in my opinion) likely enough to bet on.
My bets will be limited to the line and straight up wins for this series; at least with those wagers it makes more sense to bet with your gut instead of with Excel.
The Western Conference Finals is set. The Chicago Blackhawks (4-0 vs Wild) and Ducks (4-1 vs Flames) each made quick work of their opponents in the second round to set up a heavyweight battle in the West. The Ducks were the top point getters in the Western Conference this season, while the Blackhawks have won the Stanley Cup twice in the past four years and have the experience to know what it takes to hoist it again..
Both teams have cruised through the opening two rounds with the Ducks only dropping 1 game and the Blackhawks only losing 2. These teams deserve to be here and the bookies are content to make this a pick’em series with the same amount of juice on either team. That means that at 5Dimes.eu, the odds for both the Ducks and Blackhawks is 1.952 to win the series and advance to the Cup Finals.
My Pick
First of all, I don’t think that the Ducks are as good a team as many people give them credit for. Yes, they finished the regular season with 109 points, but they also only had a +10 goal differential, which was the worst of any team to make the playoffs.
They did sweep the Winnipeg Jets in the first round, but most of those games could go either way and the Ducks actually set a record for holding the lead for the fewest amount of minutes en route to a sweep in an NHL series. Next up, they played the Flames, who were projected to finish second last in the league this season. I think many people would agree that it could be argued that the Canucks vs Flames series included the two worst teams in the playoffs and the Ducks were lucky enough to get the winner of that series after playing Winnipeg.
Don’t get me wrong, the Ducks have been good, but I think they are getting too much fanfare for expected performances.
The Blackhawks on the other hand may not have earned as many points in the regular season, but they had a +40 goal differential, which was second to only St. Louis, which shows that their wins were not flukey. Also, they’ve had a much more difficult road to this point in the playoffs with wins over the Predators and then a sweeping of the Wild who were a great team that took out the Blues in the first round.
I think that the Ducks rely too heavily on the Getzlaf-Perry line to score their goals and I just don’t see them outplaying Keith, Seabrook, Hjalmarsson and Oduya in this series. The Ducks do catch a break that Roszival is out for the playoffs, but they will definitely have to attack Timonen and Rundblad in order to create chances and score their goals if they hope to win this series.
The Blackhawks have too many weapons to be slowed down. They have Hossa and Toews on one line, Kane on another and Sharp on another still. They have so many lines that can score goals that it is impossible to shut them down. I see young defensemen like Lindholm, Fowler, Despres and Vatanen having a great deal of difficulty in this match-up.
To me everything points towards the Blackhawks advancing to yet another Stanley Cup Finals and I for one will be putting down a good chunk of change on the Blackhawks winning this series.
Play: Blackhawks 1.952 @ 5Dimes.eu
The Tampa Bay Lightning were able to shut out the Detroit Red Wings last night in a winner take all game 7 to close up the first round. With that win the Lightning have booked a second round meeting with the Montreal Canadiens, who were able to squeak by the Ottawa Senators in round 1.
I see this series as a very interesting match-up that is about as close as they can come and the oddsmakers agree with me. The Canadiens are ever so slight favourite over Tampa Bay heading into this series.
Here are the best odds for each team I could find online:
My Pick
I give the Canadiens the edge in goal because Carey Price likely is the best goaltender on the planet. He was actually probably outplayed in the first round by Craig Anderson of the Senators, but he made the saves when they mattered (or got the calls) and he ended up finishing the Sens with a shutout in game 6. This was actually the only time the Senators were shutout all season so that in itself is quite the feat. So edge to the Habs in goal.
That’s really the only place I see the Habs having the edge though.
The Lightning definitely have a more potent offense than the Canadiens. Tampa Bay scored 262 goals in the regular season to lead the league in that department by a 10 goal spread over the New York Rangers who finished with 252 goals. The Habs only scored 221 goals and they haven’t exactly been firing on all cylinders of late, only scoring 8 goals in the last 5 games of the series against the Lightning. Tampa Bay didn’t exactly pile the goals on against the Red Wings, but they did finish the 7 game series with 17 goals and that includes being shut out in 2 games. This also includes Steven Stamkos being almost completely snake bitten throughout the series. I don’t expect that to continue.
On defense you’d think the edge would go to the Habs, but I don’t see it that way. I think the main reason the Habs keep the pucks out of their net so often is because of Carey Price. I also give the edge of best defenseman on both teams to Victor Hedman, who has played great everywhere on the ice these playoffs, over PK Subban who still can try to do too much on occasion.
Jeff Petry was a nice addition to the Canadiens back end, but just looking at the players I would still take Hedman, Stralman, Garrison, Coburn and Carle over the core of the Canadiens.
So this basically comes down to whether Carey Price can steal this series for the Habs. I think he’s definitely capable, but I think the smart money is on the Lightning in this series.
Play: Lightning 2.00 @ 5Dimes.eu
It’s somewhat late notice, but I’ve decided to run an NHL Betting Tips bracket contest for this years NHL playoffs. If things go well this will become a regular thing in subsequent years. I’m going to keep this post short and just touch on the important, need to know information.
Prizes
First off, we will start with what everyone wants to know. What can you win? Well, because this is the first time I’m running a bracket contest at the site I’m going to keep the prize pool relatively small. If things go well the prizes will increase for next year. Here are this year’s prizes:
- 1st place – $50 voucher for online sports betting.
- 2nd-5th place – $25 voucher for online sports betting.
The total prize pool for the contest will be $150. I know it may not seem like a lot, but I’m not really expecting that many entrants this year.
Scoring
Here is how the points will be awarded:
- 1st round = 5 points + upset seeding differential.
- 2nd round = 7 points + upset seeding differential.
- Conference Finals = 10 points + upset seeding differential.
- Stanley Cup Champions = 15 points + upset seeding differential.
If there is a tie a draw will be held to determine the winner.
How To Enter
In order to participate in this contest I’m asking that you like the NHL Betting Tips facebook page and sign up to the NHL Betting Tips newsletter. Below are the steps you should take to join the contest. If you do not complete each step, you will not be eligible.
- Like the NHL Betting Tips Facebook page by clicking the ‘Like’ button below:
- Join the NHL Betting Tips newsletter by entering your email below. You can unsubscribe at any time following the contest.
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Terms
This contest is open to anyone from around the world interested in betting on NHL games in the future.
The prizes are meant for sports betting online and you will be required to deposit the voucher at an agreed upon online sportsbook.
This is one of the series that I’m most interested in watching play out. I personally do think that the Blues are the most talented team in the Western Conference at this time, but I also think they have the most difficult first round match up of all the teams who I believe have a chance to go the distance.
The Wild are a very strong team, especially with Dubnyk at his best. They turned their season around and play a very complete game. This is one series that I’m less confident about my prediction, which is why I’ve chosen to give it out as my free pick.
You can see my other free pick for the first round of the playoffs (Canucks vs Flames) by clicking here.
**To get all of the series picks & our individual game picks throughout the playoffs, click here to sign up for $40. We profited +21.60 units since launching the paid picks on January 27th and are now offering a discount for playoff picks.
St. Louis Blues vs Minnesota Wild Series Pick
The Blues have a history of losing early in the playoffs after a strong regular season. Here is how they’ve made out in recent years:
- 2014, lost first round in 6 games to Blackhawks
- 2013, lost first round in 6 games to Kings
- 2012, lost second round in 4 games to Kings (they defeated San Jose in 5 games in round 1)
The Blues had home ice advantage in each of these 4 playoff series. That said, I see this years Blues team as having much more talent and depth than those other lineups. They still have a very strong defense anchored by Pietrangelo, Shattenkirk and Bouwmeester, but now their offense has also progressed with the emergence of young superstars such as Vladimir Tarasenko & Jaden Schwartz.
In the past Backes, Steen and Oshie had to shoulder the load on offense, but with the emergence of these two young stars and even the additions of Paul Stastny and Jori Lehtera the high end depth of the Blues is much stronger.
The Wild also have a strong core, but their younger players haven’t made quite the same jump this year as the Blues. Granlund, Niederreiter and Coyle are key parts of this team, but I think it will take another year or two for these players to really make that next jump to match the productivity of Parise, Pominville, Vanek and Koivu. Once this happens, I think the Wild will be a force to be reckoned with.
At this point though I have to give the edge to the Blues. Dubnyk definitely has the ability to steal this series and I can see the Wild making a deep run if they pull of an upset in the first round, but I think the Blues are just too strong and too deep this year. For me, this could definitely be the year the Blues get over the hump and make a big run in the West.
My Pick: St. Louis Blues 1.714 @ PinnacleSports.com
Click here to learn more about getting all of our picks for the playoffs.
Season Record:77-61 +12.53 Units
Betting Trends:Dallas is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games and 4-1 SU in its last 5 games on the road. Dallas is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing Calgary. Dallas is the second highest scoring team in the league at 3.1 goals per game. Dallas is second in the league in power play chances at 3.5 per game. Calgary is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games at home. Calgary has the third worst shots on goal in the league at 27.5 per game. Calgary gives up the fewest power plays in the league allowing 2.3 per game.
Really like the Stars in this spot. They’ve won three in a row and have dominated the Flames in recent games. Really good value on the Stars tonight.
Play:Dallas Stars @ 1.95
