Last night we got two wins to get us back on track thanks to the Devils and Canucks playing as expected. That brings the early season record to (2-3-0) for -1.6 units (check out the NHL predictions blog for past bets). Tonight we will look to get back closer to breaking even, with a win.
Minnesota Wild @ Ottawa Senators and Florida Panthers @ Pittsburgh Penguins
Last night before I went to bed I got the Senators at -107 at BetOnline.com, but now when I am writing this post I see that the line has shortened to -125 for the Senators. I really liked the -107, but it seems like the public did also and the line moved. This makes me feel good about my original wager, but I can’t justify instructing readers to take the -125 line because I don’t feel there is a lot of value there anymore. The Wild are playing back-to-back games, without Pierre Marc Bouchard against a well rested Senators team that is really feeling the need to get their first win. I expect the Sens to pull out the victory, but I’m not a huge fan of the -125 line.
In the other game, the Pittsburgh Penguins are at home to the Florida Panthers. Pittsburgh has already played 3 games this season and have only dropped one point in a shootout loss to the Oilers on Sunday. They will once again be without star Evgeni Malkin who is out with a lower body injury, but the Pens should still have the class to beat the Panthers. The Panthers on the other hand won a 2-0 game the other night on the back of Jose Theodore who once again gets the start tonight. The Penguins should win this game, but at -160 the line doesn’t provide much value.
The one bet that I am going to place this evening is total Home vs Away goals. This is a combination of the two games, and it is essentially the Wild + Panthers vs Senators + Penguins.
Away Goals +140
Home Goals -152
These odds were taken from BetOnline.com, which seems to be the best sportsbook for NHL odds so far this season.
The Senators and Penguins should each win their games making this a very easy bet to take. It’s surprising that the Home goals line of -152 is less than that of the Penguins line of -160, even though the Senators are also favourites. I guess this takes into account that the Sens have allowed a lot of early goals in their first two games and if that happens again the Penguins may not be able to score enough to outweigh it. I don’t expect the Senators to allow another 5 goals tonight, and the additions of Regin and Rundblad to their lineup should help them win the game.
Play: Home Goals -152
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Written by: Niko de Jonge
Tagged with: Florida Panthers • Minnesota Wild • Ottawa Senators • pittsburgh penguins